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various dimensions of America’s decline were examined and analyzed. Issues such as the reduction of military power, economic weakness, the inability to manage trade, weakness in controlling society and domestic problems, turning its back on allies, and even attacking and confronting the principles and values of the previous order—known as the American order (with the label of the U.S. as the hegemon and the only global superpower)—were listed among the sufficient reasons and factors to conclude that Washington has now reached the stage of decline and collapse. The author also referred to the rise of emerging global and regional powers such as China, Russia, and Iran as important contributing elements.
The order that was established after World War II under America’s leadership was comprehensive, long-lasting, and dominant; but now the warning lights are flashing. The global order that Washington built has cracked, and the system that was based on American hegemony has undergone structural collapse. The main cause of this crisis is not external pressure but America itself; especially in the new era that began with the presidency of Donald Trump, a leader who not only rewrote the rules of global politics but also seems ready to bring the era of Pax Americana to its final chapter.
Every order, in essence, is a reflection of the state and structure of power. After 1945, the United States reorganized the world through measures such as creating military alliances across continents, anchoring the dollar as the global currency, establishing international courts and institutions under Western management, and promoting “democracy” as the default model of governance. What consolidated this order was not merely economic or military power, but the belief that America symbolized justice, stability, and prosperity.
Today, that belief is rapidly fading—not because the world has found a better alternative, but because the guardian of that order has itself lost its faith and stability. Three simultaneous fault lines are now trembling beneath the foundations of American hegemony, and the collapse of any one of them alone could be catastrophic.
1. Military Collapse: The Failure of Global Deterrence
The United States still possesses the most powerful army in the world. But the illusion of invincibility has vanished. After the failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, the myth of America’s absolute power collapsed. Now, from Taiwan to the Middle East, Washington stands on the verge of losing control.
The most dangerous flashpoint is Taiwan. A Chinese attack would not only ignite a regional war, but also destroy the perception of America as the guarantor of Asia’s security. In the Persian Gulf as well, Washington’s inability to restrain Iran, along with escalating tensions, undermines the image of America’s leadership over the world’s oil routes. Meanwhile, North Korea, with its nuclear arsenal, has today placed the U.S. in a position of equal interlocutor and imposes its own conditions.
This is no longer the world of “Pax Americana”; it is a world of fracture and uncertainty, where revisionist powers such as China, Russia, and Iran have grown bolder. A major military defeat for the United States—especially in the Indo-Pacific (a vast region stretching from the western coasts of India to the western shores of the United States)—could be the spark that shatters America’s alliances and pushes Washington’s partners to seek new protectors.
2. The Economic Trap: The Dollar Drowning in Debt
The United States lives on “borrowed time” and “borrowed money.” The national debt has surpassed $35 trillion, and the government’s new budgets only deepen this hole further. The Federal Reserve continues to print money, and markets still consider the dollar their king—but this historical trust has an expiration date.
America’s economic power rests on global demand for the dollar. As long as the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, Washington can continue despite deficits, without facing severe consequences. But this privilege is eroding. BRICS countries are now seeking alternatives to the Western financial system, and major economies such as Saudi Arabia, India, China, and Turkey are increasingly trading in their national currencies.
The collapse of confidence in the dollar would not only create a financial crisis in the United States, but also halt the process of globalization—where American banks, investment funds, and multinational corporations still control a significant share of global GDP. Rising deficits, inflationary shocks, and credit ratings on the verge of downgrade are not merely warning signs; they are the early tremors of a systemic earthquake.
3. Ideological Collapse: America No Longer Believes in Itself!
Global leadership has always been about more than tanks and strong trade; the central issue is moral legitimacy. After World War II, the United States presented itself as the beacon of democracy to the world, but today that light is fading.
Domestically, American society is fractured. Political polarization, social unrest, and the historic collapse of trust in institutions have left the collective psyche of America wounded and adrift. The attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 was not merely a national scar, but a global symbol of America’s decline. If the heart of American democracy is so vulnerable, how can the U.S. expect to preserve its legitimacy beyond its borders?
The return of Trump to the White House is not just a political shift, but the abandonment of an entire paradigm. He disparages international institutions, questions old alliances, and shows no willingness to sacrifice for collective security. His slogan “America First” is an explicit rejection of the very logic of American global leadership. The message to America’s allies is clear: do not count on Washington, because Washington only counts on itself. The world no longer views the U.S. as a pillar of stability; rather, it sees it as a source of instability.
History shows that great powers rarely collapse at the negotiating table; they fall after a decisive blow on the battlefield. Athens perished after the Sicilian disaster, Napoleon was destroyed at Waterloo, and the British Empire declined after its “costly victory” in World War I. Today, the same specter looms over America—not as an abstract theory, but as a real danger envisioned in Pentagon scenarios and discussed in diplomatic circles
China’s Show of Force; A Blow That Changes Everything!
The United States, for several decades after the Cold War, appeared as the global sheriff, unmatched. But the 2020s brought a clear message: a new power is rising in Asia; not just to challenge the U.S., but to prepare for a direct confrontation.
China is building a 21st-century war machine: hundreds of advanced missiles, hypersonic weapons, a navy that now surpasses the U.S. in number of ships, and an expanding nuclear arsenal; all for one goal: a potential confrontation in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing no longer hides its intentions. Its strategic goal is to push the U.S. out of the Western Pacific, and it does not rule out the use of force.
A war over Taiwan could be a “Sarajevo” of the 21st century, and a spark for a global fire. The U.S., to maintain credibility and defend its ally, will be forced to intervene. But the outcome of this intervention is by no means guaranteed. Major threats loom: China’s military benefits from geographic proximity, larger size, and greater area. U.S. bases are vulnerable, supply chains reveal needs, and America’s regional allies remain hesitant.
If the U.S. loses that war, it does not just lose a battle; it loses the aura of invincibility, along with alliances, bases, influence, and access to key regions of the world. According to Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific region: “The U.S. still acts like an immortal country. But time is not on our side.”
Erosion of the U.S. Military in Global Wars
The U.S. military is engaged worldwide: Ukraine, the Middle East, Korea, Africa; each battlefield requires attention, ammunition, and logistical support. Yet the backbone of U.S. armed forces, designed for limited conflicts, is bending under global pressure.
Yes, the U.S. spends more than any other country on its defense. But its share of GDP is at historically low levels. U.S. shipbuilding lags behind, its stockpiles of precision weapons are depleted, and its industrial base is not prepared for a long and intense war. Over the past two decades, Washington has directed resources toward combating issues such as terrorism, piracy, and cyber threats, while Beijing has quietly built a military to defeat the U.S. in a classic battle.
Today, senior U.S. generals admit that the country’s deterrence doctrine is collapsing. The U.S. might win one war, but in two, and certainly in three wars, it will fail. And when rivals such as Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing coordinate their actions, the danger of “imperial attrition” becomes more real than ever. Empires do not always fall to external attacks; sometimes they crumble under their own inefficiency
Debt Spiral; An Empire Built on IOUs
For many years, the United States gained influence through economic power. But that image is rapidly changing. Federal debt has surpassed 100 percent of GDP and is projected to reach 119 percent in the coming years, and in the long term even 200 percent; numbers that would bankrupt any other country—except one that prints the world’s reserve currency.
But even this privilege has limits. If confidence in the dollar cracks and countries stop buying U.S. bonds, the system will collapse; just as the British Empire fell after World War II, with the decline of the pound and the end of payments from its colonies.
Now, the U.S. budgeting process is no longer a strategic tool; it has become a reckless pendulum swinging between populism and inefficiency. Despite trillion-dollar deficits, Washington spends almost as much on debt interest as on its defense budget. This is no longer a warning light—it is an economic cancer. The more dollars spent on interest payments, the fewer remain for modernizing the military, maintaining alliances, or technological innovation. The U.S. is increasingly resembling post-war Britain: a nuclear power relying on IOUs instead of real leverage.
If the dollar falls from its position as the “trusted currency,” the financial framework of the “Pax Americana” will also collapse. The fall of the dollar does not require bullets; rather, it is a quiet, economic surrender—which is no longer far-fetched.
Tariffs and Turmoil; Trump’s New Trade Order
Tariffs are the centerpiece of Trump’s economic doctrine. Under the slogan “America First,” the United States has transformed from the engine of global trade into a destructive sphere. Trade wars with China, India, the European Union, and even Canada and Mexico have turned economic partners into political hostages. The issue is not just resentment or annoyance; the cohesion of the West—the very bloc that upheld the post-war world order—is fracturing. Allies are pressured to increase their military budgets and grapple with U.S. export restrictions on steel, semiconductors, medicine, energy, shipbuilding, and agriculture.
An Asian analyst says: “China threatens our security, but America threatens our future.” When an ally becomes an economic threat, the roots and foundations of that alliance decay.
Markets and institutions have always been the trump card and symbol of trust in the U.S. The Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, statistical agencies, corporate laws—all were known for stability and rationality. But this last bastion is also under pressure. Trump has pushed the Federal Reserve further and turned tariffs into the cudgel of his foreign policy. Disputes over immigration, ideological wars, and personal conflicts among leaders now shake the flows of global finance. In a world where markets move based on sentiment and tweets, trust erodes rapidly.
The U.S. economy is no longer the anchor of global order; it has become a source of chaos. Countries are seeking alternatives: regional payment systems, credit agreements, investment platforms; and they are finding these alternatives in Asia, BRICS, and regional coalitions. “Reducing dependence on the dollar” has not yet reached extreme levels, but it is no longer a minor or secondary action. This is a structural shift—and it is accelerating.
Collapse of Rules and Collapse of Order
The global order is not built on armies or currency reserves, but on rules—and when the architects of these rules begin to break them, the entire structure rots from within.
The United States built this system on four pillars:
- Freedom of navigation
- Nuclear non-proliferation
- Territorial sovereignty
- Human rights as a global value
Today, all these pillars are under attack.
Freedom of the seas? China is tightening its control over the South China Sea, the Houthis are seizing tankers in the Red Sea, and Russia is militarizing the Arctic.
Nuclear taboo? North Korea is effectively recognized as a nuclear power. Iran is a few steps away from a bomb, and China is expanding its arsenal.
What about territorial sovereignty? It was violated in Ukraine, legitimized in Kosovo, and ignored in Syria.
Human rights? The list of atrocities—from the Uyghurs to Gaza, Ethiopia, and Yemen—is growing. And what is the U.S. doing? Its role is diminishing daily, often silent in critical moments.
Washington is no longer the moral compass of the world; it is a player with double standards, shifting priorities, and allies increasingly doubtful of its position.
Yes, Donald Trump has had achievements. He pressured Iran hard, stood alongside Israel without apology, and helped maintain NATO cohesion. If support for Ukraine continues, it will reinforce the norm against territorial conquest. But his words, methods, and combative spirit threaten the fabric the United States has spent seven decades sewing as a global order.
The U.S. is approaching a boundary, beyond which lies the risk of losing the world—and it may already be crossing it. Since the end of World War II, the symbolic cornerstone of global stability has been the principle of “territorial integrity”; a principle that created a buffer between order and the rule of “might makes right.” The U.S. has been a defender of this principle—from post-war Japan to peaceful European diplomacy in the 1990s. But today, this very cornerstone is being weakened by the United States itself.
Trump’s public speculations often resemble 19th-century imperialist dreams more than 21st-century policy: annexing the Panama Canal, buying Greenland, even seizing parts of Canada. These are not jokes—they are signs of a profound shift in U.S. political approach and thinking.
When the Vice President of the United States, disregarding Denmark’s objections and the wishes of its people, declares that Greenland could be a “great territory,” it is not just political carelessness; it is a conscious denial of the norms that underpin the global order. Because if the U.S. no longer respects the rules
Systemic Suicide for the First Time
No global hegemony has ever destroyed itself by dismantling its own architecture. Rome was sacked, and Napoleon was defeated by coalitions. The British Empire fell through war and exhaustion. But the American order is not collapsing due to enemies or revolution—it is being destroyed by its own internal tools:
- Overextension of the military
- Financial imbalance
- Erosion of norms
- Political chaos
And a national discourse in which aggression is considered “power” and treaty-breaking is deemed “restoring greatness.” This is not merely political disorder; it is a structural rupture. The United States, as the architect of the global order, is becoming its gravedigger.
In the 1960s, Henry Kissinger warned that the U.S. and its global system were heading toward disaster. While it did not happen then, critics have repeatedly bet on America’s collapse—and lost. But history shows that empires do not fall from a single mistake; when errors accumulate and become irreversible, collapse arrives. Today, the signs are no longer hypothetical—they are real, visible, and accelerating. Even if a sudden collapse does not occur, this decline could be slow but irreversible.
Three Paths to the End of the American Order; The Sunset of “Pax Americana”
How does the U.S.-led global order collapse?
- One path is rapid, violent, and undeniable: a military disaster. A defeat in Taiwan, the South China Sea, or the Middle East could trigger a chain reaction. A domino effect begins, and the entire structure crumbles.
- The second path is economic. The U.S., under the weight of debt, recession, and slow but steady erosion, is crushed under the dominance of the dollar. Its power does not vanish in a sudden explosion but through gradual, deadly attrition.
- The third path is political and normative. The world no longer trusts the U.S. Allies become cautious and seek alternative guarantors.
But perhaps the most alarming scenario is that we are now sliding toward a fourth option, where all three crises converge in a single storm. Trump’s crusade against institutions, weaponizing trade, and his old dreams of territorial annexation are no longer mere speculation—they are happening now.
Empires do not all collapse the same way. Some burn in the fire of war, some drown in seas of debt, and a few fade silently after losing faith in themselves.
The U.S. can still step back from the edge. But it must remember: hegemony is not only about power; it is about responsibility. Order is not an inherited right; it is a heavy burden. And if the U.S. shirks this burden, there will be no second chance. It must learn how to survive in a world it no longer controls.
History grants no immortality. But it respects those who understand when to adapt before it is too late. Because the world abhors a vacuum. If the U.S. relinquishes its role as the global arbiter, others will fill that
PNAC or Project for the New American Century
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