The world stands on the threshold of a new era of competition over water. More than 2.4 billion people live in areas facing severe water stress, and forecasts indicate this number will exceed 5 billion by 2050. Transboundary rivers, which supply water to over 40 percent of the global population, have become focal points of disputes. In the absence of binding legal frameworks and powerful global enforcement institutions, these conflicts not only threaten food and energy security but also have the potential to escalate into broader geopolitical crises.

Water disputes in key regions of the world

To better understand the depth of the issue, here are some of the most significant disputes. Meanwhile, countless tensions exist between neighboring countries around the world, occasionally igniting sparks that threaten global peace:

  • Tigris and Euphrates: Water disputes mainly occur in transboundary river basins involving multiple countries. In the Middle East, the Tigris–Euphrates basin shared by Turkey, Syria, and Iraq has been a source of long‑standing tension. Turkey’s construction of more than 22 major dams in recent decades has significantly reduced downstream water flow, causing severe shortages in Iraq and Syria.
  • Indus River: In the Indian subcontinent, the Indus basin between India and Pakistan is one of the most sensitive cases. During 2024–2025, India repeatedly restricted water flow, which Pakistan considered a violation of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. The resulting tensions brought the two countries to the brink of military conflict, further intensified by climate change and population growth.
  • Nile River: In Africa, the Nile basin has become one of the most complex water disputes due to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt and Sudan fear reduced water flow, while Ethiopia insists on its right to development. Negotiations under the African Union’s supervision have yet to reach a binding agreement.
  • Rio Grande: In Latin America, the Rio Grande basin shared by the United States and Mexico faces recurring droughts and reduced water commitments. These cases illustrate a global pattern where growing demand, diminishing resources, and climate change are driving competition toward greater intensity.
The nile
African childs

Limitations of the international legal framework for water

Global water governance is primarily based on two key instruments: the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non‑Navigational Uses of International Watercourses and the 1992 United Nations Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. However, only around 40 countries have ratified the 1997 Convention, and many key states in sensitive basins (such as Turkey, India, China, and Ethiopia) are not members.

These instruments emphasize the principles of “equitable and reasonable use” and “no significant harm,” but they lack binding enforcement mechanisms and an independent arbitration body. Transboundary groundwater (aquifers) remains almost entirely outside comprehensive legal coverage; only six binding bilateral agreements exist for shared aquifers, despite the identification of more than 600 transboundary aquifers worldwide.

In recent years, cyberattacks on water infrastructure in several countries have increased (including reported cases in the United States and Israel), yet existing international law is still unprepared for these emerging threats. These gaps have pushed countries toward limited bilateral or multilateral agreements, but without a comprehensive global framework, fairness and sustainability cannot be guaranteed.

Global data on water tensions and declining resources

The United Nations World Water Development Report (2025) indicates that the world loses about 324 billion cubic meters of freshwater annually—equivalent to the yearly water needs of roughly 280 million people. More than 50 percent of the world’s large lakes have lost volume since the 1990s.

The Pacific Institute recorded more than 420 water‑related conflict events in 2024, representing a 165 percent increase compared with the year 2000. In 2025, the United Nations University Institute described the world as entering an “era of water bankruptcy”; 70 percent of major aquifers are declining, and many have been irreversibly damaged.

Virtual water trade saves around 475 billion cubic meters of water annually, yet many arid countries continue to export highly water‑intensive products. These figures highlight the growing pressure on water resources which, without structural intervention, is likely to lead to increasing tensions.

Chad lake
Gerd dam nile

The outlook for water governance in a multipolar world

Water disputes across the globe—from the Nile Basin to the Indus and the Tigris–Euphrates—are the result of a combination of resource scarcity, climate change, and weaknesses in international legal frameworks. Data from 2025 indicate that the world has entered an era of global water bankruptcy, accompanied by a sharp rise in conflict-related events. Strengthening multilateral agreements, investing in water‑saving technologies, and improving arbitration mechanisms can help manage these tensions. These patterns in the emerging global order can guide policymakers as they rethink administrative structures, diplomatic capacity, and frameworks for transboundary cooperation.

Examining the dimensions of the decline of the liberal world order

Sources

Newsletter

Articles

XTelegramEmailShortlink